Dan Celia: Will This Week’s Economic Data and Talk of Trade Wars Impact the Markets?
PHILADELPHIA—Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia said today that important economic data and more talk of trade tariffs are expected this week, and while some believe this information will impact the markets, Celia doesn’t necessarily agree on all fronts.
Celia discusses these and other global and economic headlines on his daily, three-hour “Financial Issues” program, heard on about 650 television and radio stations nationwide.
“We will see some important economic data this week,” Celia said. “For example, the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index fell two points yesterday. Also out this week are housing starts, which came out at an 11-year high, building permits and existing home sales. Obviously, those numbers alone will play a role in what markets might do. Toward the end of the week, we will also see manufacturing and service sector numbers for the month of June.
“All these numbers are very important, but these probably won’t be the focus for many,” he added. “Most will likely be far more focused on tariffs and trade. Beijing, as expected, is beginning to retaliate on President Donald Trump’s $50 billion worth of tariffs on Chinese goods that he talked about Friday. It looks as though that China will attack some high-valued American export including, unfortunately, farm products. This, of course, hurts the nation’s farmers, those in the Heartland in particular, which is made up of Trump supporters.”
Cars and crude oil will also be impacted by the tariffs, Celia said.
“The big concern for the rest of the week, and probably into next week, will be the possibility of the two largest economies in the world inching a bit closer to a trade war,” Celia said. “It is certainly possible. And it is a cause for concern and a fairly major event. Globally, we are seeing a bit more fear coming into the markets, which is odd as we also see more optimism coming in. If I have any concerns about our market right now, it would be a bit of an overly optimistic viewpoint, though the markets certainly could end up in positive territory by the end of the year. But there’s a chance they could go lower primarily due to headlines, and not due to what is happening with the underlying fundamentals of the economy. This doesn’t involve the details of particular analytical work but the headlines of that work.”
There are also further concerns in the markets this week due to fresh threats from President Trump, Celia added.
“It looks like the president could be slapping up to $400 billion more in tariffs on China’s goods, which is escalating the worry over trade disputes,” he said. “One interesting item to note—As China is likely working overtime to come up with retaliatory measures to these threats, I suspect they may realize very soon that they are running out of goods to threaten with tariffs. Maybe they’ll come to the realization of the imbalance that exists between what they receive from the U.S. and what the U.S. receives from them.
Perhaps this is a very good negotiating tactic. We’ll see how it all shakes out in a few days.”
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