Dan Celia: With an Interesting Week and Month Ahead, Obtaining Logical Financial Data Is a Frustration
October 28, 2019
PHILADELPHIA—Nationally syndicated host and biblical investing authority Dan Celia said today that both an interesting week and month of November are ahead, with headlines about market records, interest rates, global economies and American politics—and how they all intertwine.
“The S&P 500 opened one point away from all-time record highs,” Celia said this morning. “We’ll see if that can continue, and certainly U.S.-China trade is weighing on the markets for sure. We are getting a lot of economic data this week, and the Federal Reserve will likely cut rates. This would be the third rate cut in a row. Some will argue that we do need a fourth rate cut. I’m not in that camp, but it’s a win situation for the Federal Reserve because if Jerome Powell doesn’t cut rates, it will signal that the economy has gotten stronger. As a matter of fact, the two previous rate cuts have done exactly what he wanted, and that was to get ahead of any negative curve; that should be good news for the market.”
Celia added that consumer confidence numbers out this week are expected to at 128, up from 125—already an incredible number. But the October number is looking to be even better.
“Another economic indicator—pending home sales—are also expected, and we get our first look at GDP growth for the third quarter,” Celia said. “This is expected to be around 1.5%, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a bit higher than that. Consumer spending and personal income, two very important numbers, are also both expected to be up. On Friday, nonfarm payrolls are also expected, and it’s not likely that we will see anything over 100,000. But remember that with an unemployment rate of 3.5%, we will start seeing nonfarm payrolls under 100,000—and that will not be a bad number, even though headlines may report it as such. So, lots of economic news coming out this week, but it doesn’t matter what it says because not much of it will be portrayed as positive.”
Celia also said that the more difficult it becomes to gather logical and factual data, the more frustration analysts like him experience.
“The upcoming week could provide a number of different developments, both on the U.S. political side of things as well as in giving some clarity on the markets, U.S.-China trade, and advancement, decline or stagnation in our economy,” he said.
“On the political front, we should hope the Republican Party can stand fast, firm and aggressive in its own investigations—and in getting to the bottom of a number of issues the American people have wanted to see resolved for a long time,” Celia added. “If the party can do that, it will go a long way to weakening the socialist mentality on the Left and possibly even reducing the constant advancement of the Deep State. It certainly would appear as though the coming week will be very interesting. In fact, I would say the entire month of November is likely to be very informative—or at least I pray that will be the case.”
Celia continued that he is of the opinion that clarity in politics here at home will be positive for global economies—and the diminishing of uncertainties will be beneficial both for the markets and economies, here and abroad.
“A well-respected emerging-market manager and trader on Wall Street who has been around for a very long time, Mark Mobius, has indicated that he believes there will be no chance for recession and that President Trump will do everything in his power to make sure of it,” Celia said. “Mobius also indicated that President Trump will get re-elected. Markets, once they realize that, will likely stabilize and continue to move forward.
“One of the things that is a source of concern for me is the financial sector, both here and abroad,” Celia continued. “Remember, what goes on in the financial sector internationally will impact the financial sector and the markets here in America. I don’t like the debt, nor the creativity of financial reporting. Of course, we have to keep in mind that the more ‘creative’ financial reporting gets, the harder it is for me and a lot of other analysts to get a handle on the reality of how bad, or maybe how good, things could be in financial systems or in the shadow banking organizations globally. The more difficult it is to gather logical and factual data, the more it becomes my No. 1 source of frustration and concern.”
Celia discusses these and other global and economic headlines on his daily, three-hour “Financial Issues” program, heard on more than 650 radio stations and several television networks nationwide.
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